Decision 2: Which is more likely: to be killed by a shark, or by parts falling from an aircraft in flight?
Decision 3: What length would a perfectly regular cube-shaped tank have to be to hold all the blood of five billion people?
Decision 4: Think about the consequences of the nuclear accident at Chernobyl in 1986. On a scale of 1 (not at all) to 100 (totally), how strong would you support the building of a nuclear reactor close to your home?
5 Test your decision making: comments
There are various reasons why people make bad decisions. Here are a number of them, which we discuss in relation to the four decisions that you were asked to make on page . . . We use poor criteria. When faced with complex decisions, people often rely on their own experiences. But these may not be good criteria. In the first decision, most people intuitively choose tails, even though the probability of heads is still 50 per cent. In the second question, the correct answer is "falling aircraft parts", but most people answer "shark attack" because of
their experience of watching films or television programmes.
We use wrong information. The third question is often answered poorly as a result of people
giving false importance to what they see as significant data. Many people estimate that the tank
must be several kilometers long because of the large number of people. In fact, the answer is
"only" just over 260 meters.
We are not objective. The fourth question is usually answered on the basis of personal values
and bias, rather than on objective criteria ("I need more information about the risks")
6Ask yourself.
1What kind of decision maker are your?
Do you like to be the first to act or are you more cautious?
Are you prepared to take risks or do you delay decisions until you are sure of the outcome? 5 How would you describe the decision-making culture where you work/study?
6 To what extent do you fit into the culture?
7 Think about your last major decision at work/university.
- To what extent did you collect the necessary amount of information? How well did you set the criteria for creating and comparing options?
-What tools (if any) do you use to help you make your decisions? Does fear of failure sometimes stop you from making decisions? If so, think about the positive aspects of risk taking.
- Think about an important decision that you made recently at work/university. How well did you sell the decision to those affected by it?
- Think about the last bad decision you made. What did you learn from the experience that helped you to take better decisions?
EXERCISE: Which type of decision maker would say what?
Four types of decision makers are: directive, analytic, conceptual and behavioural.
Look at the comment below. Match each of them to one of these decision-making styles. (The
answers are on page . . . .)
"I think our feeling here is that the third solution is the most creative and will also produce the best result in the long term. Is everyone happy with that solution?"
"On the basis of all the data that we have collected, I think it's clear that the third solution is by far the most logical."
"OK. I think that we have talked things through and have now a clear commitment from everyone. Can we agree to implement the third solution and discuss results at the end of the month?"
"Implement this approach and report back at the end of the month on results." Answers: 1 Conceptual; 2 Analytic; 3 Behavioural; 4 Directive.
SURVIVAL GUIDE: decision making to bring about change
Coaching has established itself as a useful tool to support both individuals and groups when they have to take key decisions. Co-active coaching works with questions that stimulate insight into assumptions and principles behind decision making. The following questions, based upon a template created by Sharon Drew Morgan(see www.businessballs.com), can help you to begin the process of innovative decision making.
Take a look around your working situation. What issues do you see that require a decision for change?
What has stopped you from deciding until now?
What would you need to see/hear/feel in order to take a decision?
What criteria are you using to decide what aspects of the situation need to be changed?
What needs to be changed first?
How are you going to handle of opinion in the decision-making process?
Who needs to support you so that you can take this decision?
How will you motivate them to support you?
How will you know whether you have taken the right decision?
How will you be able to make this success sustainable?
THE LANGUAGE OF DECISIONS
Section A
This section provides some suggestions on phrases and vocabulary that you can use when making decisions. Remember, however, that you should only use the language that you and your colleagues feel comfortable with in your specific working context.
1Deciding to decide
What do we need to decide first?
How soon do we need to take a decision
on this?
Are we in a position to take a decision?
2Defining the decision-making process
How should we decide this? Who needs to be consulted? Who should take the final decision?
I think we need to decide on a new logo.
Could you let me have a decision by next
Friday?
Well, we can decide when we get the extra
information.
I think we need to discuss . . .
We need to involve .. .
The person ultimately responsible is . . .
3Collecting information
What do we need to know to take a decision? Why can't we take a decision? What information are we waiting for?
4Setting criteria
What criteria are we going to use?
On what basis will we take our decision?
What is important here?
We need information about. . .
We don't have enough information on...
We are waiting for confirmation of. . .
Our decision should be based on . . . I think the decision should be driven by The deciding factor will be ...
5 Deciding on an option
What do you think we should do? Which option is best for you? What is your decision?
I think we should . . .
In my opinion we should decide to.
My decision is to . . .
6 Implementing the decision
What do we need to do to implement
this decision?
What do we do now?
Can we agree on an action plan?
We have to . ..
The next step is to. Yes, I suggest that
7 Reviewing the decision
Was it a good decision? Yes and no. On the one hand, we could.. .
Did we take the right decision? Yes, we did. So far. . .
Would you take this decision again? I think so.
Section В Decision-making idioms
There are many idioms and idiomatic terms in English about decisions and decision making. Here are some of the most common ones.
A done deal
This expression describes an agreement or decision that has been reached on a specific issue. "We are still looking at different options, so it's not a done deal yet."
Jumping on the bandwagon
If someone "jumps on the bandwagon", they decide to join a trend that is already very successful or fashionable.
"So many companies are jumping on the work-life balance bandwagon at the moment and starting initiatives. But I don't think they really believe in it."
Putting your money where your mouth is
People who "put their money where their mouth is" support a decision or opinion, often in some financial way, either with an investment or some kind of bet.
"Come on. If you believe England will beat Germany in November in Berlin, put your money where your mouth is and bet me $10.
Playing for time
People who "play for time" try to delay a decision in some way:
"He tried to play for time by asking for more information. I think he was hoping we would just give in and reduce our prices."
Blamestorming
This business buzzword is used to describe the process of groups trying to find out who was responsible for a decision that produced bad results. The term comes from "brainstorming". "The meeting about the failure of our marketing campaign turned into a blamestorming session, with nobody taking responsibility. Everyone just blamed everyone else."
FOR MORE INFORMATION
Bob Dignen is one of the directors of York Associates (www.york-associates.co.uk) who
specializes in language, communication and intellectual training.
Contact: bob.dianen@york-associates.co.uk
BOOKS
Group Communication, Peter Hartley, Routledge, ISBN 970-415-11159-1.
Harvard Business Review on Decision Making, Peter Drucker, John Hammond, Ralph
Keeny, Howard Raiffa, Aid M.Hayashi, Harvard Business School Press, ISBN 978-57851-557-
Unit 4
Страницы: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
