Compatibility of managers with the purposes of the project and the cores ethical and project cultural values. The analysis of a manpower. A manpower with which it is planned to involve for project realisation should correspond to level of technologies used in the project [42]. The analysis of organizational structure. The organizational structure accepted at the enterprise should not brake project development. It is necessary to analyse, as there is at the enterprise a decision-making process and as distribution of responsibility for their performance is carried out. It is not excluded that it is necessary to allocate management of realisation of the developed investment project in separate administrative structure, having passed from hierarchical to matrix structure of management as a whole on the enterprise [51]. The basic priorities in respect of the analysis of external factors are mainly caused by a policy of the state in whom following positions [37] are allocated for the detailed analysis:? Conditions of import and export of raw materials and the goods? Possibility for foreign investors to put means and to export the goods? Laws on work? Substantive provisions of financial and bank regulation. This points in question are most important for those projects which assume attraction of the western strategic investor [37]. The analysis of risk [37]. The essence of the analysis of risk consists in the following. Without dependence from quality of assumptions, the future always bears in itself an uncertainty element. The most part of the data necessary, for example, for the financial analysis (elements of expenses, the prices, production sales volume, etc.) Are uncertain. In the future forecast changes as to the worst (profit decrease), and in the best are possible. The risk analysis offers the account of all changes, both towards deterioration, and towards improvement [48]. In the course of project realisation following elements are subject to change: cost of raw materials and accessories, cost of capital expenses, service cost, cost of sales, the prices and so on. As a result of target parametre, for example profit, will be casual. The risk uses concept of likelihood distribution and probability. For example, the risk is equal to probability to get negative profit, that is the loss. The wider range of change of factors of the project, the большему is subject to risk the project [57]. As a rule, definitively innovative project is made out in the form of the business plan. In this business plan all questions listed above, as a rule, are reflected. The business plan of the innovative project, first of all, should meet requirements of that subject of innovative activity on which decision the further destiny of the project [36] depends. So, in chapter 1 of degree work theoretical bases of innovative activity in public health services have been considered, and, the basic terminology is entered, the economic reasons of innovations and legal maintenance of innovative activity are described. From chapter 1 it is possible to draw a conclusion, what a principal cause causing innovative activity in economy in general and in public health services in particular? The new market relations compelling each concrete enterprise to search additional sources of financing. These economic bases in turn generate the legislative base providing a legal field of innovative activity.
2. The technique of the estimation of efficiency of the innovative project
2.1 Existing technique of an estimation of the investment project
Existing (standard, classical) the technique of an estimation of efficiency of the innovative project includes [35:
1]) calculation of factor of the pure resulted cost (NPV);
2) calculation of an index of profitability of investments (PI);
3) calculation of internal rate of return or norm of profitability of the investment (IRR);
4) decision-making on project realisation. We will describe each step of this technique.
At the heart of process of acceptance of administrative decisions of investment character the estimation and comparison of volume of prospective investments and the future monetary receipts lie. As compared indicators concern the various moments of time, a key problem here is the problem of their comparability. To concern it it is possible differently depending on existing objective and subjective conditions: rate of inflation, the size of investments and generated receipts, horizon of forecasting, a skill level of analysts etc. The international practice of an estimation of efficiency of investments essentially is based on the concept of time cost of money and is based on following principles.
1) the estimation of efficiency of use of the invested capital is made by comparison of a monetary stream (cash flow) which is formed in the course of realisation of the investment project and the initial investment. The project admits effective if return of the initial sum of investments and demanded profitableness for the investors who have given the capital is provided.
2) the invested capital no less than a monetary stream is resulted by this time or by certain settlement year (which as a rule precedes the beginning of realisation of the project).
3) Process of discounting of capital investments and monetary streams is made under various rates of discount which are defined depending on features of investment projects. At definition of the rate of discount the structure of investments and cost of separate components of the capital are considered. The essence of all methods of an estimation is based on the following simple scheme: Initial investments at realisation of any project generate monetary stream CF1, CF2..., CFn. Investments admit effective if this stream is sufficient for? Return of the initial sum of capital investments and? Maintenance of demanded return on the invested capital. 1) calculation of factor of the pure resulted cost (NPV) [29] Calculation of this factor is based on comparison of size of the initial investment (IC) with a total sum of the discounted pure monetary receipts generated by it during predicted term. As inflow of money resources is distributed in time, it is discounted by means of factor r, established by the investor independently, proceeding from annual percent of return which he wants or can have on the capital invested by it. Let's admit, the forecast becomes that the investment (IC) will generate during n years, revenues at a rate of CF1, CF2, CF.... The general saved up size of the discounted incomes (PV) (Present Value) and the pure resulted cost (NPV) (Net Present Value) Pays off.
Where n? Quantity of the periods of time on which the investment, r is made? Norm of profitableness (profitableness) from an investment. It is obvious that if: NPV> 0 the project should be accepted; NPV <0 the project should be rejected; NPV = 0 the project not profitable and not the unprofitable Project with NPV = 0 has nevertheless additional argument to own advantage: though well-being of owners of the company in case of project realisation will not change, the volume of output will increase, i.e. the company will increase. At forecasting of incomes on years it is necessary to consider all kinds of receipts, both industrial character, and non-productive which can be with the given investment project.
It is necessary to notice that indicator NPV reflects a look-ahead estimation of change of economic potential of the enterprise in case of acceptance of the considered project. This indicator is additive in time, i.e. NPV various projects it is possible to summarise. This very important property allocating this criterion from others and allowing to use it as the core at the analysis of an optimality of the investment project. At comparison of two or several investment projects, obviously, it is necessary to choose that project which has higher value NPV [39]. 2) Calculation of an index of profitability of investments (PI) [39] Pays off a profitability index (Profitability Index) (PI) under the formula:
PI = ?k [Pk / (1 + r)k] / IC,
Where IC? Sizes of the initial investment; Pk? The prospective cumulative income; r? Norm of profitableness (profitableness) from an investment; k? Quantity of the periods of time (years). It is obvious that if: PI> 1 the project should be accepted; PI <1 the project should be rejected; PI = 1, the project neither profitable, nor unprofitable. Unlike the pure resulted cost the profitability index is a relative indicator, it characterises level of incomes on a unit of cost, i.e. efficiency of investments? The more value of this indicator, the above return of each rouble invested in the given project. Thanks to it criterion PI is very convenient at a choice of one project from a number alternative, having about identical values NPV, in particular, if two projects have identical values NPV, but different volumes of demanded investments, that, it is obvious that that from projects which provides the big efficiency of investments, or at acquisition of a portfolio of investments with the maximum total value NPV [26] is more favourable. 3) Calculation of internal rate of return or norm of profitability of the investment (IRR) [31] (Internal Rate of Return) (IRR) understand value of factor of discounting As internal rate of return or norm of profitability of the investment r at which NPV the project it is equal to zero: IRR = r, at which NPV = f (r) = 0.
Where CFj - an entrance monetary stream during j th period, INV? Value of the investment. The sense of this factor at the analysis of efficiency of planned investments consists in the following: IRR shows expected profitableness of the project, and, hence, as much as possible admissible relative level of expenses which can be ассоциированы with the given project. For example, if the project is financed completely at the expense of the loan of commercial bank value IRR shows the top border of admissible level of the bank interest rate which excess does the project unprofitable. Thus, IRR is as though? A barrier indicator?: if cost of the capital above value IRR? Capacities? It is not enough project to provide necessary return and return of money and therefore the project should be rejected [32]. 4) (ARR) [12] This factor has Calculation of effectiveness ratio of the investment two characteristic features: he does not assume discounting of indicators of the income; The income is characterised by an indicator of net profit PN (balance profit minus deductions in the budget) [19]. The algorithm of calculation is exclusively simple, as predetermines wide use of this indicator in practice: the investment effectiveness ratio (named also in registration rate of return) (Accounting Rate of Return) (ARR) pays off division of mid-annual profit PN into average size of the investment (the factor undertakes in percentage). The average size of the investment is division of the initial sum of capital investments into two if it is supposed that after term of realisation of the analyzed project all capital expenses will be written off; if presence of residual or liquidating cost (RV) its estimation should be considered in calculations is supposed.
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